SpaceX a Threat to Rural Broadband Providers? Maybe in a Few Years, Maybe Never

A research note from telecom financial analysts at MoffettNathanson Research shows the firm estimates SpaceX’s total addressable US market at full deployment at between 300,000 to 800,000 households, or less than 1% of the market. It’s a particularly noteworthy number, considering that SpaceX is poised to receive nearly $900 million from the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) to cover some of the costs of bringing broadband to unserved rural areas. And considering that the total number of locations for which SpaceX was the winning RDOF bidder is 642,000. That suggests that if MoffettNathanson’s analysis of the SpaceX threat is correct, SpaceX might barely be able to meet its RDOF buildout requirements and would be unable to offer service to anyone else. MoffettNathanson’s estimate of SpaceX’s addressable market is based on several assumptions, which according to the researchers, are conservative.