Forget the Debates -- Focus on the Air War!

If debates are unlikely to sway voters, is there a format where attacks can shape the primary campaign? Yes -- television advertisements, which are seen by a wider and more diverse group of people than debates. As Georgetown political scientist Jonathan Ladd pointed out on Twitter, negative ads may be especially potent in primary campaigns since voters lack party cues or an incumbent record to vote on, and there are often vast resource discrepancies between rival candidates.

Viewed through this prism, the most significant campaign news of the last few days was not the debates over the weekend, or even the New Hampshire primary, which Mitt Romney should easily win. Rather, it was the report that a super PAC backing Newt Gingrich will air millions of dollars in negative ads against Romney in South Carolina, the site of the next Republican primary after New Hampshire. But while the media hasn’t ignored this development, it hasn’t yet gotten the broad attention it merits. Romney remains the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, but those ads could damage him in a state that is considered more difficult for him to win. More importantly, they raise serious questions about the role that outside spending will play in our post-Citizens United democracy. For both reasons, the coming South Carolina onslaught deserves more coverage than it’s getting.