Fighting AT&T/T-Mobile Is Fighting the Wrong War

The Senate hearing examining AT&T's proposed purchase of T-Mobile will likely be a farce, as the witnesses stick to their predetermined talking points, and our elected officials grandstand for the voters back home. Meanwhile, in the back offices, lobbyists, aides and political figures will hash out the deals that will largely reinforce the status quo and deliver a merged AT&T and T-Mobile with a long list of concessions and an even longer list of loopholes. For consumers, the deal will likely improve their AT&T service in the relative short term, while delivering a wireless duopoly that will likely slow innovation through high prices for wireless broadband and hurdles for various network services.

But when it comes to regulatory issues around the wireless merger or many of the big telecommunications battles fought, those aiming to stop the big ISPs from choking off or merely charging the hell out of access to the web are playing a loser’s game. Much like the telecom industry has had to react defensively to the onslaughts of IP communications, new business models, and new services that impinge on their revenue, upstarts and those hoping to build their businesses on broadband have let the big service providers define the regulatory game. And as most tacticians know, you can’t just react to the market in order to win; you must redefine the market. And that’s what folks bemoaning the lack of competition caused by the AT&T and T-Mobile merger must do.

The problem isn't the merger, it’s that this merger will be decided by a Department of Justice and an FCC that’s playing by the old rules. Those rules don’t take into account the future needs of the mobile industry; how different the relationship between the players in that industry have become; nor how those changes affect competition.

As consumers and companies that dependent on it, we need to figure out what we want the nation’s broadband infrastructure on the wireless and wireline side to look like, while understanding how the transition to all-IP networks and the multiplicity of networks has changed the game. We also need to look at where the game has stayed the same despite all the changes in the last decade, and figure out what has impeded progress. Then we need to address that with the long-term view in mind. That isn't something that can happen in a merger review, but it’s something that needs to happen, especially if we’re about to have one less player in the wireless market.