TV Networks Expect a Jump in Spending on Commercials

The joy among broadcasters stems from a widespread belief that they will, for the second year in a row, be able to charge a good deal more for commercial time during their shows for the coming season than they were the year before.

Last spring, the networks took in about $500 million to $700 million more in the upfront market -- called that because it happens before the season -- than they did in 2009. Now, as executives start this week to share with advertisers and agencies their schedules for 2011-12, they are anticipating a robust gain in ad revenue of $600 million to $800 million from last spring -- and, by some estimates, perhaps as much as $1 billion. Those expectations come despite potential problems like a disruption of the next National Football League season; a slowdown in consumer spending caused by rising prices for gasoline, food and clothing; declines in ratings, particularly among younger viewers; and efforts by digital media to lure away advertisers.

The networks, conceding that last year’s shows generated yawns among many viewers, are hoping to reap a windfall of advance financial commitments. Advertisers are prepared to increase significantly, perhaps by more than 10 percent, their spending on the networks’ fall season shows. And the programmers are looking to send the message that they recognize they have to find something other than a new round of police procedurals and sitcoms.