AT&T/T-Mobile: is the merger in peril?

Reports of a new poll released by the Stifel Nicolaus research group have got to be worrying AT&T about the prospects of its proposed $39 billion merger with T-Mobile. Less than half (49.5 percent) of the polled telecom experts—described as "wise men and women"—now expect the relevant federal agencies to bless the marriage. This is almost a five point drop in optimism from July, when a similar survey found 54.7 percent of analysts sanguine about the merger's future. The departments considering AT&T's request are the Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice. Among the possible reasons why the merger's chances seem dimmer: Senator Herb Kohl (D-WI)'s letter to the FCC asking the agency to turn down the request. Do these indicators mean that the FCC and DoJ are going to nix this deal? If the recent history of merger reviews means anything, probably not. AT&T received the green light to swallow up BellSouth in 2006. Verizon got to snarf down Alltel in 2008. Comcast just acquired NBC Universal, and one of the Commissioners who approved the deal went to work for the cable company shortly thereafter. But even telecom regulators have limits.