Is Democratic Criticism on N.S.A. Hurting Obama’s Approval Rating?

[Commentary] A series of recent polls show President Obama’s approval rating at about 46 percent on average. This is somewhat lower than it was in late May, when it averaged 48 percent or 49 percent. Has the shift been caused by the dominant news story of the last two weeks — the disclosures about the National Security Agency’s domestic surveillance programs?

That’s tough to say since presidential approval ratings rarely provide unambiguous interpretations as to cause and effect. It’s possible that the cumulative effect of stories like the White House’s handing of the attacks on Benghazi, Libya, and the Internal Revenue Service’s targeting of conservative groups was weighing some on Obama’s numbers. It’s possible that the consumer mood about the economy, which has been on an upswing in recent months and may have helped President Obama to stave off an approval-rating decline, has become slightly less chipper. And it’s possible that some or much of this is just statistical noise.