Wiring the planet could be a $14 billion opportunity for Facebook

[Commentary] Mark Zuckerberg recently embarked on a laudable, altruistic mission to bring Internet access to the 5 billion people in the world who don’t have it. But here’s what the Facebook CEO’s white paper didn’t tell you: If 5 billion new people got online, Facebook could make in the ballpark of $3.5 billion in the first quarter.

That won’t surprise cynics who smelled a lucrative business opportunity in Zuckerberg’s talk of “connectivity” and “human rights.” That business opportunity will lie largely in mobile, since most people in developing countries get Internet through their phones. While Facebook’s “next 5 billion” campaign could mean more ad revenue for Facebook, the target may fall short. It’s unlikely that 5 billion people will actually get online, cautions Nate Elliott, an analyst at Forrester who focuses on social media. Even in developed markets, total online adoption is around “80ish percent.” And plenty of people are on Facebook in emerging markets already, 100 million on feature phones alone.