Donald Trump’s secret political weapon is his mastery of reality TV

[Commentary] Donald Trump has a better shot at winning the Republican nomination for president than almost anybody will allow right now. Yes, he's on the same trajectory as a lot of fly-by-night candidates from the 2012 cycle, and it's easy to imagine he'll collapse sooner rather than later. But I don't think his collapse is imminent. I think he's in this for the long haul, and the reason I think so is a little weird. One of Trump's seeming weaknesses -- his long association with reality TV -- is, I'm convinced, actually a strength. He's a terrific TV presence, and he seems to be adapting his "role" within the campaign, in real time, no less. He's aware of the storylines, and he reacts to various challenges to his authority as if they're just weird turns the producers came up with behind the scenes.

This should come as no surprise. This is how you win in reality TV, a format Trump is eminently comfortable in. Donald Trump's true antecedent isn't Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, or even Mitt Romney. It's Richard Hatch, the guy who won the first season of Survivor. The smart money is still on Trump eventually self-combusting, crumbling under the weight of his own hubris. But, then, the smart money in that first season of Survivor was on the fellow members of Richard's alliance realizing he didn't have their best interests at heart and tossing him overboard — and that simply never happened. On television, never look for the person who's playing the game best. Look for the person who's realized the rules are only a suggestion. That's the person the audience wants to watch — and that's the person who just might win.