February 2009

Is "broadband for all" a recipe for recovery, or a boondoggle?

[Commentary] Broadband, goes the thinking, could boost economies in much the same way as railways and highways did in previous eras. But throwing state funds at technology may not be the best approach. Other things can be done to increase broadband penetration before dipping into the public coffers. A recent study for the British government by Francesco Caio, a former chief executive of Cable & Wireless, listed a few of them, including accelerating the release of radio spectrum, fostering competition and relaxing the rules that prevent companies from stringing up overhead cables. Furthermore, there is no clear market failure that demands government intervention, argues Michael Nelson, a professor at Georgetown University. Indeed, although America ranks 15th among OECD countries in broadband penetration, the country's telecoms firms are already spending billions building next-generation networks. And simply digitizing health records or promoting the spread of broadband may not produce the desired economic knock-on effects without investment in the fields that will use these technologies, such as health and education. Perhaps the biggest risk of all these broadband plans is that incumbents will exploit the crisis to gain regulatory concessions limiting competition and open access to their networks in exchange for promises to invest. This could even help recreate the telecoms monopolies of old. But if this recession has proved anything, it is that what goes around, comes around.

Broadband crisis? Not yet.

[Commentary] Broadband crisis? What broadband crisis? We're still number two in total broadband users. Can this be improved? Absolutely. Will the proposed broadband stimulus bill make a significant difference? Not likely. The problem with this bill is the vagueness of its goal. The bill never states that the intent is to provide 100 percent broadband availability. Although the bill throws out speed requirements for basic and advanced broadband, it never states that the goal is to make sure that all broadband subscribers have at least basic (5Mbps/1Mbps) broadband, or that x percent will receive advanced (45Mbps/15Mbps) broadband. In addition, the bill never sets a timeline in order to measure progress. The other major missing piece is the fact that this bill offers nothing to increase demand, address affordability or digital literacy. All critical components that are necessary for operators to successfully invest and maintain broadband infrastructure.

If Wall St. Doesn't Want Carriers To Go Rural, Why Should We?

[Commentary] Wally Bowen, executive director at the Mountain Area Information Network, asks, "Why are we trying to figure out how to get the carriers to deploy next-generation broadband to rural America when Wall St. doesn't want them there?" Wall St. still doesn't think upgrading broadband networks anywhere makes much financial sense and if carriers are going to invest in capacity anywhere then it certainly shouldn't be in rural America. In their eyes those dollars are better spent in metro areas even if there's greater competition simply because there's a higher density of people. And for better or worse, big corporations must listen to the desires of their shareholders. If we only look at this rural broadband problem through the eyes of the incumbents then it does look like a huge challenge that's going to require an equally huge government investment. But if we take a step back for a moment and consider the broader array of deployers who have already been wiring rural America we'll see that there could be a better way.

Working on ways to get everyone in the US wired

A Q&A with Jim Stegeman of CostQuest. He estimates that about 10 percent of Americans don't have access to the Internet via a broadband or high-speed connection. While that may not sound like a lot, that's still 30 million Americans. And it is his job to figure out ways to lower that number. The 10-year-old firm recently landed a $1.7 million contract with Alabama to figure out the best ways to expand broadband access for that state's rural population. CostQuest has done previous studies for states such as Wyoming, and also does such surveys for Internet providers in the private sector. And since the Obama administration has made broadband access a priority - and possibly could fund such expansions as part of its economic stimulus package - Stegeman is even busier than ever. In addition, his eight-person firm could also be growing in the coming year to keep up with the demand.

US e-commerce comeback seen by 2010

Forrester Research says e-commerce in the United States is expected to climb back to last year's levels by 2010 after experiencing slowing growth in 2009 due to the recession. But after an acceleration in 2010, Forrester predicts that growth will slow, with 10 percent, 9 percent, and 8 percent growth expected for 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. At the same time, e-commerce will pick up a greater piece of overall U.S. retail sales.

Changing Face of Communications

According to a new report from IBM, social networking is not about new Web sites or applications but a fundamental shift in how people communicate, moving away from point-to-point and two-way conversations to many-to-many collaboration and sharing. Control of that communications is also shifting away from the "proprietary domain of telecom providers" to more open Internet platforms. Based on current growth patterns, IBM estimates that by 2012, the number of unique monthly visitors to online social networking sites will surpass 800 million. Traditional telecom service providers must embrace this change and growth - or be bypassed. Telcos must focus on moving beyond basic connectivity to "allow individuals, organizations, communications and objects to interact and communicate in ways that were not possible before."

Telecom-delivered TV subscriptions to triple by '12

Worldwide subscriptions to telecom-delivered TV are expected to grow threefold by 2012, according to a report released Monday. Despite the dire economic climate, the number of such subscriptions is expected to reach 71.6 million by that time, according to market researcher In-Stat's report. Telecom-delivered TV -- offered in the United States by AT&T and Verizon Communications--includes IPTV, which is television delivered via Internet Protocol. Elsewhere in the world, France Telecom, Telefonica, Deutsche Telecom, and China Telecom are jumping aboard. The telecommunications providers are trying to take on the giants of TV service -- satellite and cable. Key markets over the next few years include Brazil, Korea, and India due to recent regulatory changes that create more favorable conditions for the technology, In-Stat said.

Barton, Stearns: Early DTV Switches 'All But Impossible'

House Republicans Joe Barton (TX) and Cliff Stearns (FL) have written Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Copps asking for information on how many television stations will actually be able to transition early to all-digital broadcasting if, as appears likely, the House this week follows the Senate's lead and approves a bill to move the DTV transition date to June 12. They believe the FCC's Media Bureau has been "inundated" with requests from broadcasters to make the switch early if the DTV transition date is moved to June 12, and they doubt many of those requests can be accommodated because of interference concerns. That means "most of the spectrum promised to first responders would also be unavailable until the delayed transition date."

Sen Gregg's Tech Track Record

Senate Budget Committee ranking member Judd Gregg (R-NH), who recently emerged as the top contender for Secretary of Commerce, has earned high marks for his stance on issues of importance to the tech sector including casting votes for key trade agreements -- Central America Free Trade Agreement as well as accords with Australia, Chile, Morrocco and Singapore -- and tax bills (permanent federal research and development tax credit). Sen Gregg also supported the high-tech industry on stock options legislation and Internet taxation issues and has voted for overhauls to the nation's securities and class action litigation regimes. But he voted against the America COMPETES Act that authorized major monetary increases in federal R&D programs, citing concerns about funding levels. He also voted against some larger omnibus bills that contained tech supported tax language.

McDowell Expands on FCC Reform Proposal

At a Federal Communications Bar Association luncheon in Washington Monday, FCC Commissioner Michael McDowell came to praise FCC Chairman Michael Copps, not bury him. The topic of the day was FCC reform. He said all three FCC commissioners share the goals of boosting employee morale; promoting greater transparency; creating a more informed, collaborative and considerate decision-making process; and encouraging meaningful and effective public comment. Commissioner McDowell recapped his ideas about how to get there. He wants a thorough operational, financial and ethics audit of the Commission and its related entities, such as the Universal Service Administrative Company and the Federal Advisory Committees, an audit that answers these questions: What is the current condition of the FCC and its related entities? How do they operate? McDowell also proposes a series of "town hall" meetings at the FCC's Washington headquarters, at a few field offices, as well as in a few cities around the country for the general public to attend. He wants to examine the FCC's contracting process, as well as the processes relating to the collection and distribution of administrative and regulatory fees currently conducted exclusively by the Office of Managing Director. He believes there should be an examination of the Commission's assessment of fees.