December 2011

IBM predicts 5 tech changes in 5 years

Every year, IBM picks five technologies that it predicts are going to change our lives in the next five years. This year's crop of life changers includes efficient capture of renewable energy, proliferation of biometric identification to authenticate your identity, control of machines with your mind, elimination of the digital divide, and the end of spam.

Energy is everywhere -- where we walk, where our computers produce heat, where water travels through the pipes in our homes -- and in the next five years, we'll be more efficient at capturing that energy for personal use, IBM explained. "Advances in renewable energy technology will allow individuals to collect this kinetic energy, which now goes to waste, and use it to help power our homes, workplaces and cities," it predicted. It also forecasted the end of passwords as the primary way to access everything. Devices to authenticate your identity by biometric means will become commonplace in the next five years and passwords will become a thing of the past. "Imagine," IBM said, "you will be able to walk up to an ATM machine to securely withdraw money by simply speaking your name or looking into a tiny sensor that can recognize the unique patterns in the retina of your eye."

Activist Groups: Ding-Dong, the AT&T–T-Mobile Deal Is Dead

"AT&T officially surrenders," said the headline of one e-mail. "AT&T Finally Abandons Doomed Merger," said another. "We are thankful that the proposed AT&T and T-Mobile merger is now officially dead," said another.

"This deal has been as good as dead for months because the facts never matched AT&T's fabrications about the benefits of the merger," said Free Press President Craig Aaron. "As the public, the Justice Department and the FCC long ago recognized -- and now even AT&T must admit -- this deal would have only meant higher prices, fewer choices and tens of thousands of lost American jobs. Good riddance. The Obama administration deserves praise and credit for standing up to AT&T's relentless lobbying and propaganda."

The National Hispanic Media Coalition celebrated the news. "The combination of AT&T and T-Mobile would have left two wireless carriers with nearly 80% of the mobile phone market, leading to less competition, higher prices, and fewer choices for mobile phone customers. It would have also led to job losses."

"In this age of cynicism, it is important for the American people to see that Washington does not always go to the highest bidder," said Public Knowledge legal director Harold Feld. "The Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission stood up to tremendous lobbying pressure as AT&T spent tens of millions of dollars trying to push this merger through. We hope that AT&T and T-Mobile will focus on deploying the best, most competitive networks possible rather than trying to merge to duopoly. These businesses are fundamentally sound, and have what it takes to bring broadband and jobs to America on their own. We look forward to seeing them re-imagine what's possible, rather than trying to rule the air."

AT&T Ends Bid To Add Network Capacity Through T-Mobile USA Purchase

After a thorough review of options, AT&T has agreed with Deutsche Telekom AG to end its bid to acquire T-Mobile USA, which began in March 2011.

The actions by the Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice to block this transaction do not change the realities of the U.S. wireless industry. It is one of the most fiercely competitive industries in the world, with a mounting need for more spectrum that has not diminished and must be addressed immediately. The AT&T and T-Mobile USA combination would have offered an interim solution to this spectrum shortage. In the absence of such steps, customers will be harmed and needed investment will be stifled.
“AT&T will continue to be aggressive in leading the mobile Internet revolution,” said Randall Stephenson, AT&T chairman and CEO. “Over the past four years we have invested more in our networks than any other U.S. company. As a result, today we deliver best-in-class mobile broadband speeds – connecting smartphones, tablets and emerging devices at a record pace – and we are well under way with our nationwide 4G LTE deployment. To meet the needs of our customers, we will continue to invest. However, adding capacity to meet these needs will require policymakers to do two things. First, in the near term, they should allow the free markets to work so that additional spectrum is available to meet the immediate needs of the U.S. wireless industry, including expeditiously approving our acquisition of unused Qualcomm spectrum currently pending before the FCC. Second, policymakers should enact legislation to meet our nation’s longer-term spectrum needs. The mobile Internet is a dynamic industry that can be a critical driver in restoring American economic growth and job creation, but only if companies are allowed to react quickly to customer needs and market forces.”

To reflect the break-up considerations due Deutsche Telekom, AT&T will recognize a pretax accounting charge of $4 billion in the 4th quarter of 2011. Additionally, AT&T will enter a mutually beneficial roaming agreement with Deutsche Telekom.

SpectrumCo Asks FCC to Transfer Spectrum Licenses to Verizon

Verizon Wireless and SpectrumCo, the consortium of cable operators, officially asked the Federal Communications Commission to transfer the cable operators 122 wireless spectrum licenses to the wireless phone provider.

In the public interest statement from the two explaining why the FCC should allow the transfer of the licenses, Verizon and SpectrumCo argue that the deal "will enable Verizon Wireless to add network capacity to meet growing demand, so that customers will continue to enjoy the high-quality, high-speed services that state-of-the-art wireless broadband technology can provide." The cable companies – Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks -- have concluded that "constructing and operating a standalone facilities-based wireless network with that spectrum would not provide a return that would warrant incurring the substantial costs and risks involved." The spectrum represents 20 MHZ in 120 markets, except Houston, which has 30 MHZ. The parties point out that it is simply a license transfer of spectrum not currently being used, so there are no nonspectrum assets like facilities or customers and no reduction in choices for wireless service in the affected areas. As a result, they argue, the FCC's review should be expedient and limited since there are no anticompetitive effects, they say, adding: "The spectrum transfers comply with all Commission rules, require no waivers, and will not result in any violation of the Communications Act or any other applicable statutory provision." While the companies say the sale would help relieve some of the spectrum capacity crunch, they say Verizon will still need more and still supports the FCC plan on reclaiming 500 MHZ from broadcasters and others.

Benton Foundation Chairman and CEO Charles Benton said: "The Benton Foundation urges the Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission to closely review the Verizon- SpectrumCo transaction and marketing agreements with a keen eye on the implications for competition, consumer choice, wireless and pay TV prices, and innovation in both wireless and wireline services. We are concerned that Verizon Wireless’s spectrum holdings may grow so concentrated as to prevent new competitors from entering the wireless marketplace."

"It is critical that the FCC be prepared to act if the application and the agreements raise the possibility of anti-competitive coordination, said Harold Feld, legal director of Public Knowledge. “While it is important to get spectrum into productive use, the possibility that this may create 'backdoor' channels by which competitors may divide the market and keep out potential new entrants is very real. The FCC has authority to insist on reviewing the associated agreements, whatever the parties may say."

“No matter how forcefully Verizon claims that this is ‘a spectrum only transaction,’ it is much more than that. The FCC’s mandate is to look at the totality of the circumstances to decide if a proposed transfer is in the public interest. This one raises serious questions about the state of competition in both the wireless and video markets,” said Media Access Project Senior Vice President and Policy Director Andrew Schwartzman.

Free Press Policy Director Matt Wood said, “The cable cartel’s partnership with Verizon Wireless might be convenient for business, but it will most certainly come with a high cost to consumers. Without real competition for cable or mobile phone service, there's no pressure to lower prices or innovate. For consumers that means no choice but skyrocketing prices and onerous contract agreements while the cartel rakes in exorbitant profits.”

Benton Urges Caution in Verizon Wireless-SpectrumCo Deal

On Monday, December 19, 2011, Verizon Wireless and SpectrumCo, the consortium of cable operators, officially asked the Federal Communications Commission to transfer the cable operators' 122 wireless spectrum licenses to the wireless cellphone provider. The following statement can be attributed to Benton Foundation Chairman and CEO Charles Benton:

The Coming War for the Social Workplace

The hard-nosed competition for billions in corporate software spending is heading for an improbable showdown: Will the boss “like” that product prototyping cost projection? Last week Salesforce.com, a leader in cloud-based corporate software, bought Rypple, a little-known outfit that specializes in creating and observing what is called “the social enterprise” — which uses things like Twitter posts, status badges and Facebook-esque likes to set goals, manage teams and recognize performance.

Rypple is at the far end of a movement to sell companies on the idea that the modern worker, armed with a cellphone and a tablet computer, having access to a nearly infinite amount of computing power in the cloud at all times, is a new kind of beast. Just as our social lives have changed because of Twitter and Facebook, the argument runs, so too must our working lives change. Initially this will mean incorporating more rapid communications and updates about projects in Salesforce’s products for the management of sales and product services. Longer term, software that closely follows and provides feedback on what everyone is doing is “going to drive a new management model for industry.”

Beijing Tightens Cyber Controls

China is launching its strongest official measure yet to quell electronic expressions of discontent, clamping down on its versions of Twitter that have increasingly fueled once-rare protests and threaten to undermine its leaders' firm hold on power.

In the name of defending Chinese cyberspace against "harmful information," the Beijing city government announced new rules likely to chill a raucous national conversation on services like Sina Weibo, to which Chinese users are flooding to share brief text messages, photos and video. Officials will require users who post so-called microblogs to register their real names with the microblogging services—to be verified by government authorities—sweeping away the anonymity that has helped cloak dissidents online. The new rules also ban the posting of state secrets and material that could hurt national security, as well as posts that spur ethnic resentment, discrimination or rallies "that disrupt social order," the state-run Xinhua news agency said. The rules didn't mention penalties. The move represents a potential turning point as the Internet has become an increasingly disruptive force for China's leaders ahead of once-a-decade transition next year, when China's top two leadership positions will change hands.

Code for America: An elegant solution for government IT problems

[Commentary] Code for America is the technology world’s equivalent of the Peace Corps or Teach for America.

The premise is simple and elegant. America’s cities need technology help. State, federal and local governments spend hundreds of billions of dollars each year on IT systems and solutions. But a significant percentage of this money is wasted fighting red tape, jumping through bureaucratic hoops or paying for poor execution by legacy government contractors who manage to drag out simple projects and turn them into money pits. Code for America, a nonprofit group started by Jennifer Pahlka, who formerly ran the Gov 2.0 and Web 2.0 technology shows for conference and publication giant UBM TechWeb, offers an alternative to the old, broken path of government IT. Young technophiles from Google and Microsoft apply to spend a year of their time working on problems they discover as on-site fellows in cities across the country. They bring fresh blood to the solution process, deliver agile coding and software development skills, and frequently offer new perspectives on the latest technology — something that is often sorely lacking from municipal government IT programs. This is a win-win for cities that need help and for technologists that want to give back and contribute to lower government costs and the delivery of improved government service. Code for America matches fellows with cities in the program, publicizes their efforts, and monitors their progress. The cities get highly skilled coders — who might make six-figure salaries in the private sector — for free. The citizens get improved government services.

Schulzrinne named FCC CTO

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski announced the appointment of Henning Schulzrinne as Chief Technology Officer. As Chief Technology Officer, Schulzrinne will guide the FCC’s work on technology and engineering issues, together with the FCC’s Office of Engineering and Technology. He will advise on matters across the agency to ensure that FCC policies are driving technological innovation, including serving as a resource to FCC Commissioners. He will also help the FCC engage with technology experts outside the agency and promote technical excellence among agency staff. He will be based in the FCC’s Office of Strategic Planning and Policy Analysis.

Schulzrinne is Julian Clarence Levi Professor of Mathematical Methods and Computer Science and Professor of Engineering at The Fu Foundation School of Engineering at Columbia University. He has been an Engineering Fellow at the FCC since 2010. He has published more than 250 journal and conference papers, and more than 70 Internet Requests for Comment (RFCs). He is widely known for the development of key protocols that enable voice-over-IP (VoIP) and other multimedia applications that are now Internet standards, including the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP). His research interests include Internet multimedia systems, applied network engineering, wireless networks, security, quality of service, and performance evaluation.

Schulzrinne received his undergraduate degree in economics and electrical engineering from the Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany, his MSEE degree as a Fulbright scholar from the University of Cincinnati, Ohio and his Ph.D. from the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, Massachusetts. He was a member of technical staff at AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill and an associate department head at GMD-Fokus (Berlin), before joining the Computer Science and Electrical Engineering departments at Columbia University, New York. He is an IEEE Fellow and a former member of the Internet Architecture Board (IAB).

While T-Mobile eludes AT&T, Verizon buys up spectrum

[Commentary] Ding dong, sing the naysayers, AT&T's bid to buy T-Mobile is almost dead. Meanwhile, Verizon is stealthily hunting down spectrum via a lower profile strategy that could generate far less public grief. Consider its recent moves.

On Dec 16, Verizon announced that it has cut a deal with Cox Communications to buy 20 MHz of the cable company's spectrum for $315 million. The purchased licenses are located in the Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) zone, and cover about 28 million "points of presence," aka "POPs"—access links to the Internet or local exchange carriers. In November, Cox disclosed that it was phasing out its wireless service, although it would continue to serve its subscribers through the end of March. On top of the sale, Cox and Verizon will function as "agents," authorized to market each other's products and services—no small detail given that Cox is the third largest cable operator in the United States. But this acquisition pales in scope to another brokered earlier this month. On December 2, Verizon announced that it would acquire 122 AWS licenses covering 259 million POPs for the price of $3.6 billion. The seller is SpectrumCo, LLC, jointly owned by Time Warner Cable, Bright House Networks, and Comcast. Although the Verizon/SpectrumCo transaction is only about a tenth of the monetary size of the AT&T/T-Mobile merger, the participants will still have to seek a green light from FCC and submit to a Hart-Rodino Act review of the sale. This means that the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission will look at the deal.

The Cox transaction already has at least one prominent critic: Andrew J. Schwartzman of the Media Access Project. Cox Communications has joined its cable brethren in an arrangement "that insures that Verizon and the cable industry will stop competing with each other," Schwartzman declared in a press release:
“It is clear Verizon will stop building out its FiOS video service. From here on out, cable won't do wireless, and Verizon won't do video. This new cartel means higher prices and less competition. The cease-fire is more important to consumers than the proposed AT&T/T-Mobile transaction because it is much more likely to happen.”

Indeed, the Cox/Verizon deal gives credence to ancient telecom wisdom—the lower the scale and visibility of your proposed merger or buyout, the more easily it will get past regulators.