February 2012

Zuckerberg Remains the Undisputed Boss at Facebook

Since the moment he dropped out of Harvard University, Mark Zuckerberg has stayed remarkably focused on two things: Facebook, and being the boss of Facebook.

Early on he was persuaded of the vast potential of the social network he built in his dorm room, say friends, investors and detractors. He pushed his team to be fast and take risks. He resisted efforts to change the way Facebook looked and worked, even if, in the beginning, it meant giving up revenue. Most important, he arranged the ownership of Facebook so as to give himself extraordinary power to steer the company. By the time Facebook filed for a $5 billion public offering, Zuckerberg had managed to hold on to more than one-fourth of the shares in the company, and his agreements with other investors enhanced his voting power to almost 60 percent of total shares. That’s a greater measure of control than Bill Gates had at Microsoft when it went public in 1986 (49 percent), and far greater than what the co-founders of Google had in 2004 (16 percent each). Typically, say Silicon Valley veterans, a first-time entrepreneur gets to the public market with a far smaller stake in his or her creation. Mr. Zuckerberg’s arrangement leaves little room for investors to have much input on the company’s direction.

Facebook's $100 Billion Question

As investors dug into the company's freshly released financials, analysts and investors began circulating a range of values -- from as little as $50 billion to as much as $125 billion -- for the social-networking website. It will be months before the market sets a final price, but already the valuation question has become a tug of war over two essential questions: Just how fast can the company continue to grow? And can it extract value from advertising in the way it plans?

The company views itself through a relatively conservative lens, pegging its value for employee stock grants at $29.73 per share, giving it a total valuation of $74 billion based on the company's share count of 2.5 billion. The calculation was performed in a period when the stock market had just suffered a downturn and some Internet stocks were struggling. Since then, Facebook shares have rebounded a bit in private marketplaces to trade at $32 to $33 a share, according to securities traders, which would imply a valuation of about $81 billion. That is around the low end of an expected range for the company's offering, according to people familiar with the matter. The high end is $100 billion.

Advertisers' Free Ride May End On Facebook

For advertisers on Facebook, the free ride may be coming to an end.

When the social network filed for its initial public offering, the spotlight shifted from the site's exponential user growth to a metric that may have more bearing on its market value: ad sales. For years, many advertisers simply set up shop for free on Facebook, displaying their brands to users who "liked" them. But to see how Facebook now hopes to turn many of those advertisers into paying customers, look at how it convinced Omaha, Neb.-based retailer Gordmans Inc. to stop relying on free Facebook marketing and to start spending on a new kind of Facebook ad called "Sponsored Stories." According to a new study by Portland, Ore., marketing firm BlitzLocal LLC, between June 1 and Dec. 31 of last year, unpaid displays of marketing posts to users, which the industry calls "organic," decreased 33% among its more than 300 clients. "Content that used to live for a day may now live minutes in a user's News Feed," said Dennis Yu, chief executive of BlitzLocal, which analyzed some 5.7 million posts. Amid this shift, Facebook last year unveiled a new ad format, dubbed Sponsored Stories, which requires marketers to pay for exposure for their posts—including some they might once have gotten for free.

Facebook filing flags privacy risks

One thing Facebook’s IPO filing documents make clear is that the company is taking privacy risks seriously. Privacy is mentioned 35 times, mainly as a risk factor. The company acknowledges that media coverage of privacy lapses, for example, could affect profits.

“Unfavorable publicity regarding, for example, our privacy practices, product changes, product quality, litigation or regulatory activity, or the actions of our Platform developers or our users, could adversely affect our reputation. Such negative publicity also could have an adverse effect on the size, engagement, and loyalty of our user base and result in decreased revenue, which could adversely affect our business and financial results.”

The public and media scrutiny will only increase, because as a listed company, Facebook will be obliged to reveal any privacy-related investigations into its business. Facebook’s filing documents also mention, several times, the risks from changes in privacy laws both in the US and Europe.

Facebook ought to ditch its public offering

[Commentary] At long last Facebook has filed for its initial public offering, the most eagerly awaited event in Silicon Valley since Google went public in 2004. Having read the prospectus, with its details of how profitable and cash-rich the social networking enterprise is, may I suggest it calls the whole thing off. There is still time to cancel its IPO and the filing provides plenty of reasons why it ought to, and why Mark Zuckerberg, its founder and chief executive, would probably be happier if it did. He could carry on running Facebook as a private company and would not have to justify himself to outsiders. So what are its plans for the additional $5bn it may raise from an IPO? It intends to put the cash into US government bonds and savings accounts, and perhaps use some to pay the tax due on converting into shares the “restricted stock units” it has given to its 3,200 staff. Its sole tangible purpose for the IPO proceeds is to meet a tax obligation that will be triggered by going public. Welcome to the Catch-22 world of the venture capital liquidity event.

Google Beefs Up Security on Its Android Market

Google said it has beefed up security on its Android mobile-device software to better prevent "malicious" software from residing in its app store.

Hiroshi Lockheimer, Android's vice president of engineering, said that Google last year began automatically scanning Android Market apps for malicious software, including "spyware" and "trojans." The comments follow pronouncements by companies such as Juniper Networks Inc. and Lookout -- both of which sell online-security services -- that claimed last year that a growing number of malicious apps were appearing on the Android Market, where hundreds of thousands of apps are available for download. Google's comments also come after several instances where Google said it removed malicious apps from the Android Market after they had been downloaded to thousands of devices.

Who Does Google Think You Are?

According to Google, the author of this article isn’t Karen Weise, 30-year-old woman and Bloomberg Businessweek reporter. Instead it sees a 55-to-64-year-old man interested in credit cards, finance, Los Angeles, politics, and “table games,” whatever those are. That’s the information provided by a Google tool that’s been available since 2009 but which few people know about. It lets users see what the search giant has inferred about them based on the websites they visit. (The URL is cumbersome, but try searching “ad preferences manager.” It should be the first link.) The results can be spot on—or wildly off the mark. They’re based on a “cookie,” a file placed by Google (and many other companies) on each computer browser to track how its users surf the Web. Google actually knows far more than browsing histories, though. It knows what people write in Gmail messages, what YouTube videos they prefer, and where they go with an Android phone.

Historically, Google’s privacy policies forced it to cordon off some of its most important data sources from each other, so the profile of a given YouTube user was totally separate from her Gmail profile. It was a schizophrenic view of the world. Starting in March, Google will be able to pull together everything it knows from its disparate products.

Mobility Fund Auction

The Wireless Telecommunications and Wireline Competition Bureaus announced a reverse auction to award $300 million in one-time Mobility Fund Phase I support and seek comment on auction procedures and certain related programmatic issues. This auction is scheduled to begin on September 27, 2012, and is designated as Auction 901. Auction 901 will be the first auction to award high-cost universal service support through reverse competitive bidding.

(AU Docket No. 12-25)

NAB, NCTA Back FCC Reform Bills

The National Association of Broadcasters and the National Cable & Telecommunications Association both supported full House Commerce Committee consideration of Federal Communications Commission reform bills that have already passed out of the Communications Subcommittee.

H.R. 3309, the Federal Communications Commission Process Reform Act of 2011, would among other things, require the commission to 1) survey the marketplace via a Notice of Inquiry before initiating any new rulemakings; 2) identify a market failure, consumer harm, or regulatory investment barrier before adopting any "economically significant" regulations; demonstrate that the benefits of any regulation outweigh the costs, 3) requiring any conditions imposed on transactions to be within the Commission's existing authority and not tailored to remedy any transaction-specific harms.

H.R.3310, the Federal Communications Commission Consolidated Reporting Act of 2011, would require the FCC to conduct a biennial survey of the state of competition in the marketplace that it publishes online and submits to Congress. The FCC already conducts a quadrennial (originally biennial) regulations review. But unlike that process, in this review, the FCC would be required to take into account competition from the Internet.

Gingrich Campaign Continues Media Bashing to Solicit Bucks

Newt Gingrich's campaign continued to hammer on the media as a campaign strategy, specifically a fund-raising strategy. In a "dear supporter" e-mail, the candidate blamed the "elite media" for playing "gotcha" and continuing to "lob false and baseless personal attacks and highlight the negative advertising."