Were Obama’s Early Ads Really the Game Changer?
[Commentary] Many post-mortems of the 2012 presidential campaign suggest that Mitt Romney erred by allowing President Barack Obama to “define” him early through an advertising blitz in battleground states. The problem, however, is that there is very little evidence that these early ads mattered much, according to research I have done along with Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, for an upcoming book, The Gamble.
Some of that evidence comes from political science research into other campaigns, including presidential races. As I noted here over a year ago, this research finds that political ads have short-lived effects. If during one week a candidate broadcasts significantly more advertisements than the opponent, that candidate may see a boost in the polls, but the effect of that advertising will be mostly gone within a few days. Political ads are a bit like morphine: you need dose after dose for them to keeping working. Political science research and this initial evidence from 2012 suggests that the Obama campaign’s blitz of early advertising did little apparent damage to Mr. Romney in the minds of voters.