January 2015

NCTA to FCC: 25 Mbps Shouldn't Be Measure of Deployment

The National Cable & Telecommunications Association told the Federal Communications Commission that the commission should not up its Section 706 report definition of broadband to 25 Mbps downstream/3 Mbps upstream. And that if it does, the FCC should make it clear that it has no regulatory "significance" outside that report.

"The FCC should be particularly careful to clarify that it is not endeavoring to define a distinct product market for broadband services meeting the speed benchmark," NCTA said. One concern is that the new speed benchmark could be used against Comcast in the Time Warner Cable merger review since it would give the combined company a greater percentage of subscribers since they have a greater percentage of high-speed subscribers. The higher the speed definition in the report, the smaller the number of customers show up as having broadband, and thus the continued authority to regulate in the name of universal deployment if, as the FCC has interpreted it, the requirement won't be satisfied until "All Americans" have broadband.

New study of broadband stimulus is not so independent

[Commentary] The National Telecommunications and Information Administration recently released a study evaluating its implementation of its $4.7 billion broadband stimulus program (the Broadband Technology Opportunities Program, or BTOP). The NTIA paid ASR Analytics $5 million to do the study, which it touts as "independent." A careful read of the report, however, shows that the most important part of the study was not at all independent: the choice of which BTOP awards to study.

Here's the problem. The report evaluated only a sample of counties that hosted BTOP projects. That would be fine if the sample were random, but it wasn't. Instead, as ASR’s interim report says twice, "NTIA selected these projects for inclusion in the evaluation study at the beginning of the study." Not the independent evaluator, but the NTIA -- the very entity supposedly being evaluated. We still have little rigorous, empirical information about the effectiveness of the $7.2 billion the stimulus allocated to broadband. But we do have further evidence that self-evaluation is unlikely to yield a truly independent review, even if you call it "independent" in a press release.

[Scott Wallsten is Vice President for Research and Senior Fellow at the Technology Policy Institute]

Verizon nears “the end” of FiOS builds

Verizon is nearing "the end" of its fiber construction and is reducing wireline capital expenditures while spending more on wireless.

Although FiOS competes strongly against cable companies like Comcast, the expense of replacing old copper lines with fiber led Verizon to stop building in new regions and to complete wiring up the areas where it had already begun. Verizon even partnered with cable companies in 2012 to resell cable service in bundles with Verizon Wireless in areas where FiOS was never built. Verizon doesn't seem to want to maintain its copper telephone network either, with many customers and advocacy groups complaining that the company drags its feet in fixing problems in order to force users onto fiber or wireless.

Google's Eric Schmidt Predicts the Disappearance of the Internet

Google may have played a significant role in establishing the Internet as we know it, but according to its Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt, the future of the world’s most advanced information network is for it to disappear.

Schmidt wasn't referring to the actual disappearance of the World Wide Web, but rather our sense of it as its own technology, separate from everything else. "There will be so many IP addresses...so many devices, sensors, things that you are wearing, things that you are interacting with that you won't even sense it,' he said, adding that the Internet "will be part of your presence all the time."

Analysts: AT&T could spend $20-22 billion in AWS-3 auction, more than Verizon

New Street Research analysts wrote that AT&T will have $21.8 billion of liquidity and it will likely spend the "vast majority" of it on spectrum in the AWS-3 auction.

"We believe AT&T is raising capital to fund spectrum purchases; however, they will also need $15 billion to close the DirecTV transaction, which they expect to do in May," the analysts wrote. "We expect the company will need to come to the market again to raise funds for the DirecTV transaction." The New Street analysts had previously assumed AT&T and Verizon would spend around $15 billion to $20 billion each in the AWS-3 auction, in which 65 MHz is up for grabs, including 50 MHz of paired spectrum. They also thought T-Mobile would spend $2 billion to $3 billion and Dish Network would spend $2 billion to $6 billion. However, they noted that based on AT&T's capital raise, "it looks like AT&T may purchase $20-22 billion" whereas Verizon may purchase less spectrum.

Google Is the Last Thing the Wireless Carriers Need

[Commentary] Sprint and T-Mobile might enjoy a short-term boost in revenue and traffic from Google's announced Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVO), but they may also have let a brand new deep-pocketed competitor into the cutthroat business of stealing each other’s wireless customers.

Google likely cares little about being in the business of offering wireless service for its own sake. But as a company that generates new business from people accessing content, its interest is in driving the cost of network access as low as possible while encouraging the service providers to improve their networks. That’s why Google has entered the business of offering high-speed broadband to the home with Google Fiber. If it were simply out to drive prices lower, why bother acting at all? The industry is already doing a fine job of setting its business on fire. While T-Mobile and Sprint may feel the pressure to do a deal with Google if one believed the other was doing so, they also have the responsibility to make sure they are not digging their own graves even faster.

This device thinks it can be the last smartphone you will ever need

The PuzzlePhone, developed by Finnish startup Circular Devices, is among a handful of bold concepts seeking to become a legitimate alternative to the wasteful cycle of cellphone upgrades.

Similar to Google’s widely-publicized Project Ara, the phone is designed to allow for certain parts to be interchangeable. For instance, fresh batteries can easily be swapped in and should the screen break, you can avoid costly repairs by simply buying a new one. But perhaps the biggest draw is that the phone, to some degree, would be future-proof. Since an injection of seed funding in September, the company has been busy assembling a prototype and hopes to release as commercial model by the end of 2015. No suggested retail price has been set, but Circular Devices co-founder Alejandro Santacreu says it wouldn’t be a stretch for the products to eventually reach a price point that’s competitive with other smartphones on the market, should the idea catch on. And even if the device retails for more out-of-pocket than a subsidized smartphone with comparable specs, users should expect to save money over the long term, he says.

Sprint Takes on T-Mobile in Latest Promo, Offering Up to $550 to Switchers

Sprint’s latest promotion promises to pay T-Mobile customers a guaranteed $200 in trade-in for their smartphones, plus up to $350 to pay off any remaining installment payments owed on the phone.

AT&T Weighing A DirecTV Rebrand, Future of OTT Transition

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson said the company has placed DirecTV's name under review. "We haven't decided yet how we are going to brand it," he said. "We're testing the DirecTV brand and the AT&T brand, so we're doing a lot of thinking." He was also flippant about the position the company will take on over the top video.

Stephenson said it was "inevitable" that the traditional "bundle" of cable television channels will crumble as more content travels "over the top" to customers via the Internet. He said he wanted AT&T to be part of that transition and was fully prepared for erosion of the DirecTV customer base over time. "We will go hard at 'over the top' and will invest in the tech platform and content," he said, adding that AT&T has weathered such transitions repeatedly during his time at the company. "We build this into our models. I've gone through these transitions more than I can count. They all look the same. The new stuff grows really fast, and margins get compressed. Once you have 30% penetration, you can get your cost structures in line and then ride the growth curve."

Sports TV Comprises Most Cable Costs

On average, SNL Kagan says pay TV providers spent $1.03 per month per subscriber for sports channels in 2013, which will soar to $1.37 by 2018 -- a five year compounded annual growth rate of 7.3 percent.

SNL Kagan says the top sports network -- and overall cable network -- cost is ESPN, at $6.04 subscriber per month. After sports -- far down the list -- come film-centric cable channels, which sits at 81 cents a month, and are expected to see flat costs for pay TV providers for the next four years. SNL Kagan says the overall average per cable network cost is at 39 cents a month per subscriber in 2014 -- growing 5.4 percent per year to 48 cents a month in four year. It had been 37 cents a months at the end of 2013.