Colin Gibbs

[Commentary] The time finally may be right for a tie-up between Dish and T-Mobile. While T-Mobile’s momentum is impressive, it will need much more spectrum to continue to expand its nationwide LTE network.

Dish has been planning to use its AWS-4 spectrum as well as its coveted 700 MHz airwaves to deploy LTE services, and both companies plan to participate in the Federal Communications Commission’s auction of low-band spectrum slated for 2015.

Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen said it would be a “personal failure” if his company failed to get into the wireless market. He should move now to pick up T-Mobile to take on AT&T and Verizon at next year’s auction.

[Commentary] Despite all the hubbub, though, there’s precious little evidence that US consumers are willing to actually pay a premium or even go much out of their way to protect their privacy in an increasingly connected world.

A 2013 survey from the Pew Research Center found that only 41 percent of US Internet users had set their computer browsers to turn off or disable cookies, and a recent Microsoft survey found that only one-third of consumers had adjusted privacy settings in their social networks. And a 2013 survey form the tech market research firm uSamp indicated a mere 4 percent of users had switched mobile service providers due to privacy concerns.

Fears about mobile security and privacy grow more legitimate by the day, but there’s no reason to think consumers will pay to alleviate them.

Online marketers have long relied on cookies to track users’ behavior on the web in an effort to deliver targeted ads as accurately and effectively as possible.

But two major factors continue to minimize the relevance of cookies in mobile: Apple’s Safari browser doesn’t support third-party cookies, preventing advertisers from tracking users and retargeting pitches across multiple sites. Similarly, the webview technology used by native apps to display online content is unique per application, preventing the sharing of information between cookies or with the browser.

The latter problem is particularly troublesome because apps continue to dominate the time spent on smartphones. Apps accounted for an overwhelming 86 percent of the average US mobile consumer’s time in 2013, according to Flurry, while the web claimed a mere 14 percent, down from 20 percent in 2012. So while consumption of mobile data continues skyrocket, the mobile advertising industry still lags behind.

Counterpoint Technology Market Research reported that T-Mobile was the third-largest US purchaser of smartphones in the first quarter, overtaking Sprint.

T-Mobile bought 6 million smartphones for itself and its mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) during the period, according to Counterpoint analyst Neil Shah, outpacing Sprint’s 5 million units. T-Mobile recently posted its best quarter ever, adding 2.4 million subscribers to claim the lion’s share of the US market’s core subscriber growth.

T-Mobile has made big strides with its infrastructure lately, too: it launched voice-over-LTE in Seattle on three handsets, and has been using a technology dubbed 4×2 MIMO to improve signal strength and connection speeds on its LTE network.

[Commentary] Comcast is expanding its network of Wi-Fi hotspots in an effort to “kneecap wireless providers” such as AT&T and Verizon.

While Comcast has yet to announce any specific plans, it recently wrote in a Federal Communications Commission filing that it could build “a ubiquitous Wi-Fi network” that could connect users via Wi-Fi whenever possible, falling back to a cellular network only when necessary. The strategy could enable Comcast to deliver wireless services at a fraction of the price of traditional cellular network operators.

A huge looming question, then, is how Comcast would launch a mobile service: Would it partner with an existing carrier to launch a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO), or would it buy its way into the market via acquisition?

[Commentary] The analytics firm Flurry reported that mobile app usage in the US was higher than ever in the first quarter of 2014, accounting for 86 percent of the average mobile user’s time, or two hours and 19 minutes per day.

The mobile web accounted for just 14 percent of the average user’s time spent on mobile (22 minutes per day), down from 20 percent during the first quarter of 2013. Flurry’s data isn’t surprising, but the report generated some incendiary headlines. Forbes shouted that the mobile browser is dead, Business Insider echoed that claim, and BuzzFeed concluded that no one uses the mobile web anymore.

Perhaps the most thought-provoking piece was from entrepreneur-turned-venture capitalist Chris Dixon, who said the “worrisome trend” is likely to relegate the web to a “niche product” used only for a few specific tasks. Dixon makes some great points, and his brief post is well worth a read. But there are a few important reasons I disagree with his conclusion:

• Mobile apps often overlap with the mobile web.
• The mobile web experience still stinks.
• Web-friendly technologies will continue to improve.

[Commentary] SoftBank CEO and Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Son is stepping up his efforts to convince the powers that be that an acquisition of T-Mobile would create a more competitive US mobile market.

Son has a pretty impressive track record of getting what he wants, often by sheer will. Which might help explain why T-Mobile CFO Braxton Carter reportedly suggested recently that a merger with Sprint is inevitable. But the Federal Communications Commission is slated to hold two major spectrum auctions that are each expected to draw much stronger interest from carriers than the recent H Block auction did.

If neither Sprint nor T-Mobile can pony up the cash to compete, Verizon and AT&T could walk away with enough of the airwaves to ensure the current duopoly for years to come. And while the FCC could give smaller carriers and potential newcomers preferential treatment in those auctions, doing so could give Sprint and T-Mobile a way to legally challenge regulators’ claims that competition is alive and well.