3.45 GHz auction hits make-or-break stage

The 3.45 GHz auction, which started October 5, completed 23 rounds on October 14, with bids tallying more than $4 billion. Demand started out high at the beginning of the month, but Auction 110 observers saw a large drop in demand on October 8. Actions over the past week suggest the auction is at risk of closing. If demand reaches supply before the minimum price of $14.8 billion is reached, the auction will fail, warn analysts at New Street Research. If things go south in a hurry, the outcome could be known by October 20. Round 22 saw a significant drop in demand, the equivalent of almost one nationwide block according to Sasha Javid, COO of BitPath and former chief data officer and legal advisor for the FCC Incentive Auction Task Force. This drop follows that even larger drop in demand in Round 10, where the eligibility equivalent to two nationwide blocks vanished. “As a result, demand is sparse outside of a small handful of markets in the Top 20,” Javid said. “Indeed, as of Round 23, five markets in the Top 20 already have no excess demand.” No doubt, large policy implications are in play. The wireless industry pushed the Department of Defense and National Telecommunication and Information Administration to clear the spectrum and routinely pushes for more. If wireless players don’t step up and buy the spectrum, it could make lawmakers or regulators far less likely to hunt for or grant new spectrum.