Analysts: 600 MHz incentive auction could generate $60 billion, but per-MHz prices could be lower than AWS-3 auction

Despite Sprint's announcement that it will not participate in the Federal Communications Commission's planned incentive auction of TV broadcasters' 600 MHz spectrum in 2016, analysts still expect the event to generate as much as $60 billion in total bids. That amount would make the auction by far the government's most successful spectrum auction ever in terms of total money raised.

However, some analysts are predicting that average spectrum license prices might be lower in next year's auction than this year's AWS-3 auction due to the FCC's tightened bidding rules, the 30 MHz spectrum reserve, and wireless carriers' tightening balance sheets. "In 2016, we expect large M&A deals to be limited due to the upcoming broadcast-spectrum auction, which is scheduled to start on March 29, 2016," reported Moody's. "The Advanced Wireless Services (AWS-3) spectrum auction that ended in January 2015 raised nearly $45 billion in provisional winning bids. We anticipate bids in the broadcast-spectrum auction could approach $60 billion if non-traditional bidders -- cable MSOs and technology companies, such as Comcast, Dish Network, and Google -- decide to participate."