The ARPAphant in the room

Cartesian and ACA Connects released the 4th version of their estimate for how far the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) money will go, finding that we can reach “at least 71 percent of eligible locations” with fiber with the estimated $61 billion is available (BEAD + provider matching) to reach the remaining 10.1 million unserved and underserved locations. The estimate reduces the 10.1 million locations because 3.2 million of them will be covered by Federal Communications Commission (FCC) programs — mostly Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF). But a footnote hints at a larger looming adjustment: the American Rescue Plan Act put billions into broadband, most directly with the $10 billion Capital Projects Fund (CPF). If ARPA-funded projects take ~1 million locations off the board for BEAD (we really don’t know what the number is because there weren’t up front reporting requirements) that could be ~15% of the remaining Digital Divide, before BEAD. Why is this important? One requirement of the $42 billion dollar BEAD broadband deployment program is funding not be allocated where another federal program already provides an “enforceable commitment” to build broadband. The problem? CPF doesn't require money be spent on underserved and unserved locations, and the lack of upfront reporting makes it hard to tell which locations have an enforceable commitment.