AT&T predicted to dominate 600 MHz incentive auction with $10B in bids, outshining T-Mobile's $8B spend

The financial analysts at Wells Fargo predicted that AT&T will outspend its rivals on licenses during the Federal Communications Commission's incentive auction in 2016 of TV broadcasters' 600 MHz spectrum, dropping up to $10 billion on a 2x10 MHz block of spectrum with nationwide capability. The analysts predict T-Mobile will come in second with bids of up to $8 billion, while Verizon will clock in last among the nation's largest wireless carriers with a total of $5 billion in bids.

As the Wells Fargo analysts point out in their latest report on the incentive auction, AT&T initially pledged to bid at least $9 billion in the incentive auction, but when the carrier made that pledge it was still in the process of acquiring DirecTV. The Wells Fargo analysts said that, since the close of its DirecTV acquisition earlier this year, AT&T has backtracked from that pledge. Nonetheless, the analysts point to recent statements on the auction from AT&T CFO John Stephens that "We would expect to participate. … Certainly, getting nationwide opportunities is what we've talked about in the past. The 2x10 nationwide capability is something that works very well with our network planning and our network team, but we will see how this develops."