BEAD and RDOF will both fund unserved areas - what happens next?

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will put $42.45 billion into broadband buildout, to be distributed by the states. Less than a year earlier, the FCC’s high-cost Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) committed $9 billion for rural buildout and subsidies in some of the same areas. Here, I explore which RDOF areas are likely to get funded, what that means for the remaining unserved locations, and the amount of funding each state will have for each remaining unserved location. From the vantage point of the states: If your unserved areas were funded by an established operator promising fiber to the premises, it doesn’t seem logical to use IIJA money to fund those locations. Also, you can imagine the RDOF winner would not be happy about another subsidized competitor in a high-cost area. After all, their take-rates and revenue projections are based on being the only provider of true high-speed broadband. It’s my impression we’re still in the goldilocks phase of this process—it’s pouring money for broadband. That’s a good thing. But there will be some bumps.

[Mike Conlow writes about technology, policy, politics, and economics in various combinations in 'Mike's Newsletter'.]