The big fiber rollup is coming – the question is when

With billions of dollars both public and private on the table, new fiber players are springing up left and right. Some are small, rural telecom companies who have decided to make the technology leap from DSL. Others are entirely new entrants targeting strategic pockets of certain states, as Wire 3 is doing in Florida. It seems almost impossible that all will survive in the long run. But is the fiber industry destined for a rollup akin to what’s already been seen in cable and wireless? And if so, when will it happen and who will be doing the buying? By all accounts, the answer to whether there is a rollup coming is a resounding “yes”. Recon Analytics founder Roger Entner and New Street Research’s Blair Levin both said consolidation is absolutely coming. AT&T CEO John Stankey seems to agree. Stankey argued that for many smaller fiber players “their business plan is they don't want to be here in three years or five years. They'd like to be bought out and consumed by somebody else.” And Wire 3 CTO Jason Schreiber said “it seems inevitable in any majorly fractured industry.” But the question of when consolidation might begin in earnest is a bit more complicated. Entner contended that at least for rural telcos, the question centers on how much fight they have left in them. Since these smaller companies likely don’t have dedicated build crews or other key equipment to hand, they “have to find muscles they haven’t moved in decades” if they want to upgrade their networks to fiber.