On Sept 8 Wilmington, North Carolina Goes Cold-Turkey Digital

At high noon on Sept 8, TV stations in Wilmington (NC) will pull the plug on full-power analog TV broadcasts. And while question marks remain, the principal players, from broadcasters to the FCC, to the Bush administration's chief telecom advisers and right down to the mayor of Wilmington, appear confident that they, and the market, are ready for a relatively pain-free switch. But for others, that very smoothness is cause for concern. No pain, no gain, they argue. A hassle-free switch to digital in Wilmington will not reveal the problems that could face the nation next February when analog shuts down and digital signals take over. So the question remains: Is this test really a test? Barry Goodstadt, senior VP of market research firm Centris, which will analyze what worked and what didn't in the coastal city of Wilmington, agrees with the chorus of constituencies believing there will be a relatively smooth transition. But that is not altogether a good thing. "Wilmington is not a high-risk area in terms of reception. It is very flat," he says, which means the test is a "softball" rather than one that would provide more useful information. "Sure, awareness is going to be very high. I'm sure of that. There is probably nobody there who hasn't heard about this," he says. Wilmington has a high penetration of cable and satellite viewing—about 93%. That left only about 10,000-15,000 viewers out of a market of 175,000 or so who relied only on analog over-the air broadcasting and would be most affected by the switch. And, since they are making the switch early, and voluntarily, the participating Wilmington stations involved -- WWAY (ABC), WSFX-TV (Fox), WECT (NBC), WILM-LP (CBS) and W51CW (Trinity Broadcasting) -- will still be allowed to air an analog signal for at least a few weeks to give a heads-up to viewers who may not have gotten the message. The market also has a bad-weather bailout plan that could delay the shutoff if Hurricane Gustav, or any other storm, is threatening the region.