The Trajectory of the Broadband Industry

For well over a decade, it was fairly easy to understand the trajectory of the broadband industry. But the industry is now in total turmoil. Within a short time, cable companies have stopped growing. Currently, all of the industry growth among big internet service providers (ISPs) is coming from cellular fixed wireless access (FWA). Last-mile fiber networks are being built across the country. Wireless internet service providers (WISPs) finally have the radios and enough spectrum to be serious competitors. When I talk about trajectory, I’m not talking about predicting 2024. The challenge is to guess where the industry is headed over the next five years. Who will be the winners and losers over that time? My predictions:

• Fiber will continue to eat away at cable companies, and in five years, the cable companies might not have a choice and will have to bite the bullet and convert to fiber to compete. It’s hard to envision a future where cable companies don’t lose customers annually for the next five years.
• DSL will finally die, and its market share will be absorbed by FWA and fiber.
• FWA companies will continue to grow at a rapid pace for the next couple of years. Low prices will always find a market. But if the carriers can’t find a way to guarantee bandwidth at peak times, a lot of homes will lose faith in the product. FWA will see a lot of competition in rural markets. I think the industry will eventually reach a market equilibrium – at some level higher than today’s DSL penetration.
• WISP’s success will be market by market and will depend upon the other competition and local conditions – the technology will always struggle in places with rough terrain like Appalachia.
• Satellite broadband will still be the technology of choice for the most remote places. Satellite’s real long-term markets are in the parts of the world that don’t have other good rural ISPs. But Amazon might find a bundling option that will still make the company a serious player in the US.