Craig Moffett: New Government Data Shows U.S. Broadband Market Saturated

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"The single most critical question facing cable investors is what happens to broadband subscriber growth from here," said Craig Moffett, the influential principal and senior analyst at MoffettNathanson. "If the problem facing cable broadband today is saturation, then subscriber growth likely flatlines from here. If the problem is market-share loss, it probably goes negative.” Moffett said new government figures give him the penetration rate for wired broadband in the US. The rate, which he figures is 87.4% of broadband-available homes, suggests the broadband industry is saturated, a better outcome than finding an industry suffering a share loss to fixed wireless. Moffett’s previous estimate was 81.5% penetration. Moffett said the latest data from the Federal Communications Commission “strongly supports the ‘saturation’ thesis, in our view. What’s left to penetrate (of what has already been wireline enabled) will have to compete with headwinds that include poverty, illiteracy and, of course, relevance. We’ve seen estimates that suggest that fully half of broadband-enabled but unsubscribed homes don’t own computers. We don’t suggest that 87% penetration of homes is a ceiling … but it is likely not far from one.”


New Government Data Shows U.S. Broadband Market Saturated: Analyst