The Future of the Last Mile

What does future demand for broadband speed and usage mean for last mile technologies? The fastest broadband technology today is fiber, and the most common fiber technology is passive optical network (PON), which brings broadband to local clusters of customers. The original PON technology deployed in the early 2000s was BPON, which had the capability to deliver 622 megabits of speed to share in a cluster of 32 homes. The industry has pivoted in the last few years to XGS-PON, which can deliver 10 gigabits of bandwidth to a neighborhood cluster of homes. XGS-PON is a great upgrade, but it is not going to satisfy broadband needs in 25 years when demand is at least 12 to 15 times greater than today. Something that cable executives all know but don’t want to say out loud is that cable networks will not be able to keep up with expected future demand over 25 years. A few cable companies have already acknowledged this reality. Altice announced a transition to fiber years ago but doesn’t seem to have the financial strength to complete the upgrades. Cox has quietly started to upgrade its largest markets to fiber. All big cable companies are using fiber for expansion. By 25 years from now, all cable companies will have made the transition to fiber. There is no possibility for wireless technology to keep up with the increased demand that will be expected in 25 years. Unless satellite technology finds a way to get a lot faster, it won’t be a technology of choice except for folks in remote areas. Mobile data is always going to be vital, but there will be major pressure on wireless companies to finally deliver on the promises of 5G to keep up with future demand for speed and bandwidth.