Is There a Fiber Crunch?

There have been a number of articles in the industry press predicting a major shortage of fiber in 2026. Fiber manufacturers have already been working at full capacity due to the large amounts of fiber networks being built, and 2026 should be a busy year for fiber construction. The telephone companies, cable companies, and fiber overbuilders are all planning a lot of fiber construction. There is still a little over $10 billion in planned fiber construction funded by the same existing subsidy and grant programs, plus there will start to be orders for fiber from Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) Program grants as 2026 goes by. Vendors and industry experts are predicting that some kinds of fiber could experience ordering backlogs as long as a year. Vendors are likely going to satisfy their largest customers first, so smaller projects might find themselves in a bind. It will be ironic after all of the hurry up and wait for BEAD if grant projects are badly delayed due to a fiber supply chain problem. But all of the industry predictions are based upon demand staying firm. There are a number of credible predictions that there will be an artificial intelligence (AI) market contraction in the coming year, since data center supply seems to have outstripped the ability to generate the revenues needed to make the industry viable. The Fiber Broadband Association says it is not expecting big backlogs in the fiber needed to build last-mile networks. I guess none of us will know for sure until we start seeing smaller internet service providers place orders for fiber.