October 2016

AT&T and Time Warner Seek to Mollify Deal’s Critics

On Oct 24, AT&T’s chief executive, Randall L. Stephenson, and his Time Warner counterpart, Jeffrey L. Bewkes, sought to address some of their biggest criticisms:

The Strategic Rationale: During the hourlong call, a form of the word “innovate” was used 32 times. The two chief executives believe combining their companies will help them innovate around advertising, the shows and movies people watch and where they watch them (hint: on their cellphones).

Regulatory Risk: Over the weekend, politicians from across the political spectrum came out against the deal. Both Democrats and Republicans argued that too much consolidation between telecommunications and media could only be bad for consumers. Bewkes argued that consumers would not feel the effect of this transaction, that the cost would be “borne by advertisers and consumers get a break.”

Affordability: Vertical integration may help the two companies on the regulatory front, but it does not get them far from a cost-savings standpoint. The companies pegged so-called synergies at $1 billion in annual run rate, within three years of the deal closing.

The new AT&T could control the path from the cable box to your phone

This weekend saw one of the biggest corporate acquisitions in years as AT&T reached a deal to purchase Time Warner for more than $80 billion. If approved, the deal would create a massive new joining of the telecom and media business, along the lines of AOL-Verizon (combined in May of 2015 ) and Comcast-NBCUniversal.

But AT&T's new conglomerate has a unique combination. Comcast has a bundle of cable channels and a fiber network — a scary combination for many — but it doesn't have a wireless business (at least not yet). Verizon has a wireless business and a web empire, but it doesn't have any TV channels. The newly formed AT&T conglomerate would be the only company with the means to build a direct pipeline from Game of Thrones to your smartphone — which could be a powerful and frightening force in the years to come. If the future of the media business is mobile video, zero-rating could give carriers frightening new powers — and no one would benefit more than the newly joined AT&T-Time Warner conglomerate. For now, content companies are holding most of the cards — but that only means AT&T’s new powers are more likely to appear as a bonus rather than a restriction.