October 2016

Early AT&T/Time Warner Merger Reports See Trouble Ahead

Wall Street investors aren’t so sure that the nearly $85.4 billion deal AT&T is proposing for Time Warner will be an easy ride. Early Oct 24 trading pushed Time Warner’s stock down 2.4% to $87.33 -- all due to AT&T’s proposed deal for the company equating to a price tag of $107.50. For its part, AT&T’s stock was down nearly 2% to $36.80. Analysts are worried on two fronts: First, that federal regulatory concerns will make it a tough go for the merger to be completed. Second, that vertical media integration itself has had difficult times in working well.

Although AT&T claims it competes in virtually no areas where Time Warner operates, federal agencies may believe that media vertical integration -- that of the biggest pay TV provider in the US, AT&T’s DirecTV, and a big TV-movie content producer, Time Warner -- isn’t a good deal for consumers. Another outside reason for troubles for the deal: A new possible bidder, which is why AT&T rushed to complete it over a weekend -- just two weeks before the presidential election. Donald Trump, for example, has already said he is against the merger; Hillary Clinton will generally be tougher on mergers overall. Still, favoring this merger could be the singular weaknesses of different media companies. That could mean other possible big media deals.

Why Wall Street doesn't like the AT&T - Time Warner deal

AT&T and Time Warner think their $85 billion merger makes strategic sense. Now comes the tough part -- convincing skeptical investors that the deal won't be the second coming of AOL Time Warner. The stocks of both companies fell after the opening bell: Time Warner lost 3% and AT&T dropped 2%. Why? It's because AT&T is paying cash for half of the deal. The remainder will be financed with stock. AT&T's stock is falling -- and dragging down Time Warner -- due to concerns the deal could fall apart following what is expected to be intense regulatory scrutiny.

AT&T Time Warner Regulatory Approval is But One Hurdle for the Blockbuster Deal

There is considerable skepticism already about the AT&T-Time Warner tie-up. The total transaction is valued at $108.7 billion (including Time Warner debt) and some financial analysts fear AT&T will take on too much debt in the process.

Of course Time Warner is no stranger to controversial deals, They were a part of what many believe was the worst failed corporate merger in history, AoL-Time Warner, which at the time cited many of the same benefits AT&T now cites as motivation for the deal. There are also valid concerns regarding the regulatory climate for such a deal. Will regulators approve the deal at all? Or if they do, will they burden it with so many conditions that it ends up being more trouble than its worth. One area sure to receive significant scrutiny is exclusivity of Time Warner content. AT&T already allows DIRECTV programming to flow across its mobile network without counting towards a subscriber’s monthly data allowance. Regulators will surely frown upon that and will probably dictate conditions that block such behavior. Comcast has conditions on their NBC Universal deal that aim to prevent exclusivity of content. There is also a change of Federal Communications Commission leadership to come, due to the presidential election and one candidate, Trump, has already signaled he would oppose the deal if elected. Hillary Clinton had not yet commented at this post’s publishing. Regulatory approval is no slam dunk for this deal.

When a Phone Company Came for Hollywood – A Wakeup Call

This weekend, a telephone company bought one of Hollywood’s most treasured studios, the home of “Harry Potter” and “The Sopranos” and “The Lord of the Rings” and “Game of Thrones.” It’s a real wakeup call, when a phone company came for Hollywood. And it makes you wonder if content is king after all. And if it is — for how long? It’s all, apparently, about mobile, and being able to move content at lightning speed on those little screens that have become our constant obsession.

In many ways, by agreeing to sell Time Warner, Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes has admitted that a legacy content company cannot keep up with the pace of innovation demanded in an age of competition by Netflix and Amazon. Though those companies are relatively new to creating original content, their ability to drive decisions based on data is something with which Time Warner cannot compete on its own. But as part of AT&T, it probably can. Or possibly. (It’s unclear if NBCU uses the data Comcast could likely provide to drive its own content decisions.) For so many of us who’ve seen Hollywood as the crown jewel in the creation of popular culture, getting bought by a phone company feels like the tail wagging the dog.

The ghost of AOL will haunt the Time Warner-AT&T deal

In the end, I guess you could finally say Steve Case was right. Case led AOL to great power in the 1990s, and he then presided over what has become known as one of the worst mergers of all time, when he combined his high-flying Internet giant with Time Warner, back at the turn of the century. It was a truly epic move, all predicated on the very big idea that distribution and content had to marry in the digital age and that whoever did that successfully would rule the next era of media and more. It was also an epic failure, brought down by a toxic combination of timing and execution.
Which is to say that the body of Time Warner — made up of the mandarins of media whose power was waning, although they did not know it at the time — rejected the deal almost immediately and made sure it would never succeed, even as the fast-and-loose slicksters of AOL did everything possible to seem as lightweight as they still were at the time. You could write books on what went wrong — and I did — which raises the question of what Time Warner now thinks will go right in the deal it just struck with telecom giant AT&T to be taken out for $85 billion. As expected, the media has gone wild, dragged along breathlessly as they are for any holy-god deal, nearly forgetting that some of its current principals were the very same people who had been the biggest critics of the match-up of Time Warner and AOL.

AT&T says nothing will change when it buys Time Warner. AT&T says everything will change when it buys Time Warner.

When AT&T owns Time Warner, nothing will change; AT&T will treat Time Warner like a standalone company. When AT&T owns Time Warner, AT&T will offer Time Warner stuff to its customers that they can’t get anywhere else. Which version of that is true? Both versions! Just depends on who AT&T execs are trying to convince, as they look for government regulators and Wall Street to bless their $86 billion deal.

The regulator part is the really hard hurdle: Washington seems to be increasingly skeptical about mega deals like this — which is why it nixed Comcast-Time Warner Cable — and so AT&T has to convince officials that it won’t make it harder for people who don’t have AT&T to get “Game of Thrones” or the next Batman movie, or CNN. AT&T has common sense on its side when it makes this argument, since if it limits access to Khaleesi or Batman or Wolf Blitzer, or provides special access to them, all of those things become less valuable for Comcast customers or Verizon customers or anyone who doesn’t get AT&T. And even if AT&T wanted to do that, there’s zero chance regulators will let it happen. It’s a non-starter.

Clinton Transition Corner

Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and her progressive allies are pushing Hillary Clinton to curb the market power of tech giants like Apple, Amazon and Google - putting the Democratic nominee in a bind over how hard to police an industry that's showered her with money and support in 2016. If she wins in November, Clinton would have to fill a raft of positions at the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission, the government's twin cops on the competition beat.

The tech industry - which has largely avoided major showdowns with Washington's antitrust regulators during the Obama Administration - could easily face new scrutiny if Clinton bows to the Sen Warren wing and appoints people with a tougher eye for enforcement." Another name being circulated for a Clinton antitrust position is Daniel Weitzner, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who served in key roles at the Commerce Department and the White House during Obama's presidency. There's also chatter about whether Sharis Pozen, now the vice president for competition at GE, could return to government. During her tenure as acting assistant attorney general at DOJ, she oversaw the agency's landmark effort to block AT&T's proposed purchase of T-Mobile - and she also brought DOJ's successful case against Apple for the way it priced its ebooks. Two Federal Communications Commission aides - Gigi Sohn , an adviser to Chairman Tom Wheeler, and Travis LeBlanc, the agency's enforcement chief - are also seen as contenders for an FTC commissioner post.

On freedom of the press, Donald Trump wants to make America like England again

Donald Trump's presidential campaign is all about American greatness — unless the subject is freedom of the press, in which case the Republican nominee thinks England is much more tremendous than the United States. Trump reiterated his desire to weaken First Amendment protections, a position he staked out in February when he pledged to “open up” libel laws so that public figures, such as himself, can sue and win cases against media companies more easily.

Trump described his vision in greater detail: "Well, in England they have a system where you can actually sue if someone says something wrong. Our press is allowed to say whatever they want and get away with it. And I think we should go to a system where if they do something wrong — I'm a big believer, tremendous believer, of the freedom of the press. Nobody believes it stronger than me, but if they make terrible, terrible mistakes and those mistakes are made on purpose to injure people — I'm not just talking about me; I'm talking anybody else then, yes, I think you should have the ability to sue them," Trump said. "So you'd like the laws to be closer to what they have in England?" he was asked. "Well, in England you have a good chance of winning. And deals are made and apologies are made. Over here, they don't have to apologize. They can say anything they want about you or me, and there doesn't have to be any apology. England has a system where if they are wrong, things happen," Trump said.

Should Media Employees Give to Campaigns?

A Q&A with Dave Levinthal, a writer for the Center for Public Integrity.

During the 2016 election, journalists have become part of the story in an unprecedented way. GOP Candidate Donald Trump has levied repeated accusations that the media is biased, insulting them and even barring them from covering his events. He seemed to find proof for this rallying cry in an article written by Dave Levinthal and Michael Beckel for the Center for Public Integrity. The story shows that of very few self-identified journalists who have given money to a presidential candidate, 96 percent gave to Hilary Clinton. The piece quickly flew around the Internet, aided in part by Donald Trump. It’s long been a rule in journalism that reporters should not donate to political campaigns. But the story’s examples left many underwhelmed. We spoke with Levinthal about how his story, as well as how campaign coverage during this election has changed given the media’s role in the spotlight. He said, "If there's anything, I think, to be taken from that it's that there really isn't much of a standard practice across the news industry when you throw publications large and small, when you throw in radio, television, online print, be it what it may. It really just depends on the news organization itself."

Pallante out as Register of Copyrights

Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden announced the appointment of Maria Pallante as senior advisor for digital strategy and Karyn Temple Claggett as acting register of copyrights. In the role of senior advisor, Pallante will support the Librarian’s agency-wide digital strategy, advising on collecting and preserving digital materials, collections copyright status, licensing opportunities and third-party collaborations related to digital content. Pallante has served as register of copyright since her appointment in 2011 by James Billington. Prior to that appointment, Pallante served as deputy general counsel (2007-2008) and associate register and director of policy and international affairs (2008-2011) for the office. From 1999-2007 she was intellectual property counsel and director of licensing for the worldwide Guggenheim Museums. She also worked for two authors’ organizations in New York, serving as assistant director of the Authors Guild Inc. and as executive director of the National Writers Union. She practiced at the Washington, D.C., law firm and literary agency Lichtman, Trister, Singer and Ross, and completed a clerkship in administrative law for the appellate division of the U.S. Department of Labor.

Temple Claggett has served since 2013 as associate register of copyrights and director of policy and international affairs for the United States Copyright Office. In that role, she has overseen the office’s domestic and international policy analyses, legislative support and trade negotiations. She has directed the Office of Policy and International Affairs, which represents the Copyright Office at meetings of government officials concerned with the international aspects of intellectual property protection, and provides support to Congress and its committees on statutory amendments and construction. Prior to joining the Copyright Office, Temple Claggett served as senior counsel to the deputy attorney general of the United States, where she assisted with the formulation of Department of Justice policy on legal issues and helped manage the Department of Justice’s Task Force on Intellectual Property. She also spent several years in the private sector as vice president, litigation and legal affairs for the Recording Industry Association of America and at the law firm Williams & Connolly, LLP. She began her legal career as a trial attorney for the U.S. Department of Justice’s Civil Division through its Honors Program and also served as a law clerk at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit.