Analysts think copper is likely to linger in US despite fiber frenzy

AT&T and Verizon have talked up their copper retirement plans, but analysts say the technology is likely to stick around in the US at least until the end of the decade. That’s in part because copper is deeply entrenched in the country. There’s no question operators are eager to move away from copper and for good reason. New Street Research’s (NSR) Jonathan Chaplin said, “All the ILECs we spoke to seemed to agree that there are significant [operational expenditure] and maintenance [capital expenditure] savings to be gleaned from either replacing copper with fiber or [fixed wireless broadband].” But Chaplin added Verizon executives said the regulatory process around retirement “isn’t straightforward” and he concluded “mass copper retirement is not right around the corner.” Part of the problem is the sheer scale of the transition. NSR’s Blair Levin pointed out Verizon still has approximately 12 million locations served with copper. Meanwhile, MoffettNathanson said copper subscribers account for around 60 percent of AT&T’s consumer wireline business. AT&T’s copper footprint currently covers around 60 million locations and while the operator is looking to cut that figure to 30 million by 2025, that would still leave it with 30 million locations to go.