Broadband Adoption and the Fraying Social Safety Net

The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is likely to result in substantial changes in the financial prospects of low-income households. There is no shortage of analyses that foresee a budget shock for the less well-off among us as the social safety net contracts and the tax burden for low-income households increases. Direct effects are one thing, whether that is less food assistance or help with the heating bill in the winter. Indirect impacts are inevitable as well—and the ability to pay for home broadband service is bound to be one of them. The following analysis estimates the number of low-income households that will lose home broadband connectivity due to OBBB’s negative impact on their household finances. The analysis shows that approximately 5.6 million low-income Americans (that is, those in the lowest 20% of the income distribution) may lose broadband connectivity as the full effects of OBBB unfold. Many low-income households rely only on a cellular data plan to go online and they are most at-risk of disconnection. At the same time, additional millions are likely to lose home wireline subscriptions, perhaps keeping some connectivity through a cell data plan. And for some, no home subscription to a broadband service may become a new normal. In addition to the aggregate estimate of 5.6 million lost connections, this analysis presents state-by-state estimates for connections lost. About half a million households each in California and Florida may lose broadband connectivity, with 200,000 households potentially disconnecting service in states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan.