July 2015

The Snapchat Elections Begin With Bernie, Hillary and Jeb

In 2008, it was the Google election. 2012 was Twitter’s turn as the campaign centerpiece. Facebook populism rang in the ’14 midterms. And now, as 2016 approaches, prepare for the presidential politics of Snapchat.

Enter Sen Bernie Sanders (I-VT). He made his debut on the mobile app (though judging from his expression, he doesn’t look entirely comfortable with the medium yet). Politicians since time immemorial have done their glad-handing where the voters are. And the young voters are on Snapchat. Sen Sanders is following behind Hillary Clinton and John Ellis Bush, both of whom have made cameos in Snapchat’s “2016” curated stories since announcing their elections.

The billennial generation: how bilingual millennials are changing Spanish-language TV

A generation of bilingual millennials are gravitating away from the torrid love stories and brassy variety shows that have been popular for decades on Spanish-language TV.

Univision calls this generation "billennials." And they increasingly consume their media in English. It's a shift that Spanish-language networks have seen coming for some time. Billennials now outpace immigrants, long the core market of Spanish-language media, as the main source of growth for the Latino population. Univision may be sitting pretty as the fifth-largest U.S. broadcaster with 2.8 million nightly viewers, and Telemundo has a nightly average of 1.4 million viewers, but the two networks recognize that if they want to maintain their hold on the coveted Latino market they need to actively court billennials.

Dish Talks for T-Mobile Said Stalled on Structure, Valuation

Apparently, the slow-moving Dish Network talks to acquire T-Mobile US from Deutsche Telekom AG have stalled over concerns related to valuation and structure. The lack of momentum calls into question whether any transaction will get done in 2015 or at all, apparently. The two companies will soon turn their attention to a spectrum auction in 2016 in which they’d either be bidding on wireless airwaves as one company or competing.

Dish and Deutsche Telekom would want to iron out an agreement in the next two or three months before focusing on the auction, and the halt in talks has made that timeframe unlikely. T-Mobile will eventually need more spectrum to continue growing, and a deal with Dish would let it avoid spending billions at government auctions. The timing pressure stems from a quiet period the two companies would face related to an auction early in 2016 of US airwaves surrendered by television stations intended to help feed the growing need for mobile carriers. The companies will be prohibited from speaking publicly or to each other due to the Federal Communications Commission’s anti-collusion rules. The ball is in Dish’s court, two people familiar with the situation said. Deutsche Telekom has told Dish what kind of offer it wants and so far Dish hasn’t met that demand.

Chairman Wheeler's Response to Members of Congress Regarding GAO Lifeline Report

The Federal Communications Commission agrees with the Government Accountability Office report on the importance of evaluating whether the Lifeline program is achieving its goals. The 2015 Lifeline FNPRM & Order addressed the reforms highlighted by GAO which had not yet been fully realized and the challenges faced by subscribers and providers participating int he Lifeline program. We are pleased that the FCC's previous reforms have taken hold and resulted in a sustained, accountable program, but agree with GAO that the FCC's work is not compete. As a result, the FCC took further steps to continue the implementation of the four reforms highlighted by the GAO.

We recognize that the Lifeline program must continue to evolve to reflect the realities of the 21st Century communications marketplace in a way that ensures both the beneficiaries of the program, as well as those who pay into the universal service fund. The FCC and its staff appreciate the GAO's analysis and its recommendation. We look forward to continuing to work with the GAO and Congress in our efforts to reform and modernize the Lifeline program.

Mobile data could soon be included in federal analyses of high-speed Internet deployment

When the Federal Communications Commission decided in January to raise the minimum official speed for "broadband" by more than 500 percent, it did so on the rationale that it would help promote the rollout of high-speed Internet. But the analysis that produced that decision only covered providers of fixed or wired Internet connections, such as Comcast or Time Warner Cable. Now the agency will consider whether to account for mobile Internet providers too, when it studies whether broadband is being adequately deployed in the United States.

FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler has circulated a proposal to his fellow commissioners that would, if approved, kick off a process to add cellular carriers to an annual review of the US broadband market, according to an FCC official. If the agency agrees to look into the issue, it could allow the FCC to pressure those companies more strongly to upgrade their networks -- making them faster and more robust. It may also prompt the FCC to set a minimum benchmark for what is considered "mobile broadband," much in the way that the FCC has set the threshold for wired broadband at 25 megabits per second. But bandwidth is only one part of the equation. Your Internet experience is also determined by latency, or how much time it takes for signals to bounce from one device to another. Wheeler's proposal includes coverage of these so-called quality-of-service factors, the official said. A separate part of the proposal deals with satellite Internet -- which, if approved, could someday mean the FCC will regulate the likes of SpaceX and OneWeb, which are working to develop satellite-based Internet access.

FCC’s MVPD proceeding: the next divisive issue

[Commentary] Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeler’s proposal to reclassify some online video providers as multichannel video programming distributors is going to be another divisive, partisan issue -- an all-too familiar pattern at the agency. The gist of the proposal would result in over the top services that provide linear programming (programming streamed on a set schedule) falling under the same regulations as cable or other pay TV services. Chairman Wheeler recently said the agency would take up the issue in the fall, but GOP Commissioner Ajit Pai, is already building his case for why it’s a really bad idea. From Commissioner Pai’s perspective, there is no market failure. Over-the-top video is thriving. “Given the remarkable success of the over-the-top video industry, the burden should be on those who favor new regulations to prove what’s wrong and explain why we should change,” Pai said in an address to the Churchill Club, a business and tech forum in Palo Alto (CA). Commissioner Pai cited numerous examples of online video that have popped up all across the Internet, from YouTube to Netflix to CBS All Access. The argument for redefinition is that it would help the OTT industry, stimulating more competition for cable because TV stations would now be required to engage in retransmission consent negotiations.

In a speech before the cable industry, Chairman Wheeler signaled his position: “The commission has its work to do to clear obstacles to competition. We will proceed to consider whether to adopt a technologically-neutral definition of a multichannel video program distributor and, to be candid, I favor a technologically-neutral definition that includes Internet-based companies that choose business models that fit this status,” Chairman Wheeler said. But that presents its own legal dilemma, Commissioner Pai noted. While the FCC could compel retransmission negotiation agreements, it has no authority over the Copyright Office, which must also grant a compulsory license.

FilmOn Ruling Not The End of the World

[Commentary] The networks suffered a setback July 16 when US District Court Judge George Wu ruled that Alki David's FilmOn is entitled to the compulsory license. But it's only a setback. There is plenty more litigation to go before it's settled that FilmOn -- or any other online video distributor (OVD) -- may enjoy the benefits of the license as cable and satellite operators do. For the record, the license permits redistributors of broadcast signals to cover their copyright liability by paying a nominal fee through the Copyright Office.

The Supreme Court has weighed in once on this issue, and may do so again before it's all over. And even if the networks ultimately lose the legal battle, they may not lose the war. The Federal Communications Commission has their backs. Sometime later in 2015, the agency, with the backing of FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, is expected to rule that OVDs are multichannel video program distributors (MVPDs) just like cable and satellite operators. What's more, even if the courts grant FilmOn and other OVDs the license, they will still have to go to broadcasters for retransmission consent. The FCC is going to see to that.

Clinton reserves nearly $8 million in TV time for fall advertising blitz

Hillary Rodham Clinton, in a move that suggests she is taking little for granted in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, has reserved nearly $8 million in television time for a fall advertising blitz, a campaign official confirmed. The advertising could begin as early as the first week of November. Once on the air in those states, Clinton is prepared to stay on almost continually through the first votes of the 2016 primary-caucus season. Iowa’s caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016, and the New Hampshire primary is likely to be held eight days later, on Feb 9.

Donald Trump making biggest splash on Facebook in Iowa

Donald Trump is dominating Facebook in Iowa, as many presidential candidates travel to the first-in-the-nation caucus state. He generated more interactions -- which the company defines as shares, likes, comments and posts -- than any other candidate in the field. From Friday, July 10 until Thursday, July 16, 66,000 people generated 206,000 interactions about Trump.

He was followed by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who generated 86,000 interactions from 31,000 people. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) rounded out the top three, with 17,000 people generating 57,000 interactions. Of the candidates who generated measurable data, businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R) and Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) made the smallest impact during the time period examined by Facebook. Both got only 3,000 interactions from 2,000 individuals.

Let them debate!

[Commentary] It will be easy this year to identify the biggest losers in the GOP debates. They will be the candidates who aren’t on the stage. As polling experts of all ideological stripes have pointed out, the margin of error in surveys is so large that it is statistically impossible to determine who should fill the last two or three spots in the top 10. Effectively, all the polling bottom-dwellers (those who have one percent to four percent) are tied -- and a good chunk of the field is now in this category. Does it really make any sense from the GOP’s perspective to include Trump and Ben Carson, who are both currently in the qualifying group of 10 even though neither has ever been elected to anything, while potentially excluding low-polling Kasich, the popular two-term governor of the key swing state of Ohio?

Fortunately, there is an easy, fair solution that can be quickly adopted. Invite all the candidates with at least one percent in the polling averages or who are current or former governors or senators (so as to add former governors Jim Gilmore of Virginia and George Pataki of New York, who are not polling at 1 percent but who have paid enough dues to the party to merit inclusion) in the initial prime-time debates. To reduce the crowded stage, have two back-to-back debates, the first from 8 to 9:30 pm and the second from 9:30 to 11 pm. Choose by lottery half the candidates who will comprise the first debate, with the others placed in the second debate -- depending on the number of candidates, one debate might have one more participant than the other. If both Fox and CNN adopt this arrangement, the selection process would almost certainly produce four different combinations of candidates going head-to-head in the August and September events. Or perhaps the CNN face-off could switch up the candidates in some reasonable fashion to ensure variety and feature very different combos from the earlier Fox debate.

[Larry Sabato is a university professor of politics and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics]

Benton

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